Published Dec 6, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed By: MGM | Release Date: 12/25/23 | Run Time: 124 Minutes
Drama. True story, best-selling novel, directed by George Clooney. During the height of the Great Depression, members of the rowing team at the University of Washington get thrust into the spotlight as they compete for gold at the 1936 Olympics in Berlin......Joel Edgerton, Callum Turner, Peter Guinness
Screening Notes
Struggles, sacrafice, adversity, a team largely expected to lose. Pretty uncomplicated, formulaic story that tugs on your emotions in a way that we’ve all watched unfold dozens of times before in different movies (Hoosiers, The Natural, Rudy, We are Marshall, American Underdog, etc)…but so what, in the directoral hands of George Clooney it was still satisfyingly feel-good entertainment.
Boxoffice Estimate
Despite being a true story and the 2013 novel topping the NYT Best Seller list for over two years, ironically, my sense is the fate of this film lies entirely in the hands of MGM’s marketing team and their ability to generate moviegoer awareness…current tracking points to initial awareness only in the mid-20’s --- by comparison, Color Purple (12/25) is in the mid-70’s and Ferrari (12/25) in the mid-40’s, so they have some work ahead. But Boys in the Boat provides some wonderful material for them to work with, so hopefully they step-up and begin the push soon! This film is a crowd pleaser that should over-index in smaller markets, particularly in the central and northwestern regions of the country.
Reflecting back on my projection analysis run rate over the past 2 years, I tend to nail the opening day estimate, averaging 102%; then my optimistic nature takes over and I go wild with the weekend total at 110%; eventually, rationale thinking returns and my projection accuracy for the total run hits 104% vs actual. With that disclaimer, my analysis points to an opening weekend estimated at $9M, with a range between $8M and $11M. The opening day estimate of $5M is in line with the average Christmas Day releases over the past 4 years and the comp title set; it also tracks closely with Clooney’s Leatherheads (’08). The projected 3.2x multiple should yield a final gross estimate between $28M and $34M, which is also in line with the Christmas Day release average and the comp set of titles.
Click To Watch Trailer !
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