Published Aug. 14, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Lionsgate | Release Date: 8/30/24 | Run Time: 96 Minutes
Mercer is desperately trying to rebuild his life and his relationship with his son amid the turbulent Los Angeles riots in 1992. Across town, another father and son put their own strained relationship to the test as they plan a dangerous heist where Mercer works...Tyrese Gibson, Scott Eastwood, Ray Liotta
Screening Notes
Had no idea what to expect from this film but the general storyline of a father trying to rebuild his relationship with his son during the backdrop of the 1992 LA riots seemed like a pretty straightforward interpersonal, low-key, family drama. Au contaire…this turned out to be a fairly good and intense heist film. Reflecting back, with Snoop Dogg as the producer, Ariel Vromen the director, and Ray Liotta, with his always terrifying and unpredictable menace playing a bad guy, I should have known this film would have some edge to it. The Rodney King verdict and the resulting riots in LA serve as the perfect backdrop for Liotta and his sons (wow, Scott Eastwood looks more and more like his dad) to steal stuff, but I’m not sure the time period and LA setting are going to resonate with a broad moviegoing audience...which is too bad, fans of heist and actions films would enjoy it – I would expect the Audience Score to land in the 80+ range).
Boxoffice Estimate
I feel the success of the comp set of titles selected pretty accurately correlate to where 1992 will likely land… a $6M opening, with a range between $5M and $7M, going on to yield a 2.7x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $15M and $19M. The opening weekend projection falls within 80% attainment of the comp titles but less than 50% of the average R-rated title opening in Aug over the past 8 years. Putting further pressure on the opening gross are soft awareness scores leading up to the release date…awareness tracking is one of several key metrics for gauging the effectiveness of the movie’s marketing campaign AND predicting its boxoffice performance, but from time to time we still get a nice surprise (most recently, Ends With Us).
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