Published Feb 8, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Roadside Attractions | Release Date: 3/8/24 | Run Time: 104 Minutes
Comedy | Drama. Stranded in Buffalo Gap, Texas, fledgling actor Erwin meets Merle, a veteran oil driller who's about to lose everything he owns. In desperate straits, Merle asks him to pose as his Harvard educated landman to fool the police and a corrupt oil company owner......Thomas Haden Church, Carrie-Anne Moss, Rudy Pankow, Bruce Dern
Screening Notes
Very simple, predictable, entertaining, feel-good film about good folks with big hearts, working hard, trying to do right…and just every once in a while, catching a break. This is NOT by any description considered a “big budget” movie (production costs were ~$10M and the advertising budget moderate), and the film sets are (1) a small-town café, (2) an old farmhouse, and (3) West Texas ranchland. But production costs are irrelevant when a film includes the always lovable Thomas Haden Church…and then when you throw in Bruce Dern, well, you’re in for a fun 104 minutes.
This uplifting little film should be particularly enjoyed in smaller West and Midwest markets and, of course, rural Texas.
Boxoffice Estimate
With Ordinary Angels, Cabrini, One Life, Arthur the King, and now Accidental Texan, the 5-week run from WB 2/23 thru WB 3/22 does NOT lack for inspirational films...I’m a bit undecided whether this wealth of high-quality, same genre related titles will cannibalize one another, and this film just gets lost, OR serve to jump start some near-term moviegoing from a consumer sector that tends to only attend inspirational, family-oriented, or faith-based films.
Since 2016, Roadside has released around 8 films a year. Their top title, I Can Only Imagine, another inspirational title, grossed $83M. Subtract the distributor’s 10% highest and lowest grossing titles, and their average film opens to $500k on 413 screens and goes on to total $1.8M…which is pretty close to where I sense Accidental Texan will fall. My analysis points to an opening weekend estimated at $500K, with a range between $450K and $580K --- the expected 2.5x multiple should produce a final gross between $1.7M and $2.0M. I also expect this film’s Rotten Tomato “Audience Score” to tally between 85 and 90.
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