Published Nov 30, 2022
Synopsis
Distributed By: Paramount | Release Date: 12/23/22 | Run Time: 188 Minutes
Drama/Comedy. Decadence, depravity, and outrageous excess, the film chronicles the rise and fall of multiple characters during Hollywood's transition from silent to sound films in the late 1920s. Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Jean Smart, Tobey Maguire
Screening Notes
This is an epic, non-stop sensory overload, jaw-dropping peek at the very early days of Hollywood and all that made it, well, “Hollywood”. Robbie, Pitt and Smart are PERFECT in their respective roles, but have to say in only a ~10-minute cameo, Tobey Maguire almost steals the movie. The musical score is one of the best…ever. With La La Land, Whiplash and First Man, director Chazelle already has a shelf full of industry awards and I can see this film's nominations for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Musical Score, and a few other categories adding to his street cred.
Boxoffice Estimate
Students of cinema and industry folks will love this film. Film festival, period piece, and art-house fans will love this film. It will do well in the largest major markets. The challenge will be capturing the attention of mainstream, middle-America moviegoers who may just not care…the Paramount marketing team will need to be extra creative working their magic. Add to this, the uphill battle theatres will have trying to grind-out a show schedule dealing with a +3-hour run time, likely without the benefit of working the title on multiple screens and driving a decent gross will be challenging. Also, let’s not forget that since 2016, R-rated dramas released in December have only averaged a $7.5M opening weekend (The Mule (’18) tops the list at $17.5M).
My math points to an opening weekend totaling $13.9M, with a range between $12M and $15M. The anticipated 3.7x multiple is smaller than Chazelle’s other films but they also opened on fewer screens…the total gross is estimated between $46M and $57M.
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