Published May 29, 2022
Synopsis
Distributed By: Sony Pictures | Release Date: 6/7/24 | Run Time: 115 Minutes
Action. When their late police captain gets linked to drug cartels, wisecracking Miami cops Mike Lowrey and Marcus Burnett embark on a dangerous mission to clear his name...Will Smith, Martin Lawrence, Vanessa Hudgens, Eric Dane
Screening Notes
With 3 films under their belt, the Bad Boys franchise is firmly grounded in intense action, humor, camaraderie, and total chaos as Mike and Marcus battle drug lords and mobsters. And even though these two “bad boys” have been at for 29 years, this 4th title doesn’t deviate from the formula; for moviegoers that enjoy action-packed films, Bad Boys 4 delivers a fun, albeit predictable, summer movie.
Boxoffice Estimate
T-minus ten (10) days out and National Research Group (NRG) tracking of moviegoers’ thoughts is yielding an encouraging 84 Awareness and 18 First Choice scores. Looking over a data set of more than 130 titles at this same point in time, historically the combination of these scores translates into an opening weekend gross somewhere between $45M and $58M (let’s call it $51M) …which also aligns with my thinking in the analysis below based on a weighted comparative film analysis.
Expectations point to a $48M opening, with a range between $43M and $52M going on to yield a 3.0x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $127M and $156M. The $48M is 24% less than Bad Boys 3 ($63M) but 3.5x greater than the average opening for a Jun R-rated title over the past 8 years. As a fun fact, the $16M opening of Bad Boys back in ’95 is equal to $33M in today’s dollars, and that was generated by only 2,866 screens. The film offers promise, but the wild card may be whether or not moviegoers have forgiven Will Smith for his bad [weird] behavior during the ’22 Academy Awards…the “slap” was very uncool and hard to excuse.
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