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Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - CIVIL WAR (R)


Published Apr 2, 2024


Synopsis

Distributed By: A24 | Release Date: 4/12/24 | Run Time: 109 Minutes

Drama.  In a dystopian future America, a team of military-embedded journalists races against time to reach Washington, D.C., before rebel factions descend upon the White House.......Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Nick Offerman, Jesse Plemons


Screening Notes

Now, several days after screening this film and I’m still trying figure out what to do with it. Civil War is a disturbing, relevant, and very timely movie.  With the setting in our own backyard, it’s hard to watch, yet you know you need and want to watch.  The trailer is slightly misleading in that, surprisingly, the film is not about red & blue politics and there really isn’t any political messaging…yes, the backdrop is a country politically divided, and because this being an election year and current US political tensions, moviegoers will settle into their seats with that narrative top of mind.  But the story is more about the numbing effect war has on war-correspondents and their desperate attempt to hold on to a shred of compassion as they capture the ugly side of humanity. Kirsten Dunst is very good as the seasoned war photographer; Jesse Plemons is a hauntingly deranged character she has a brief encounter with; and Alex Garland (director) is no stranger to apocalyptic movies…exhibit A: 28 Days Later and 28 Weeks Later.  The movie should earn upper 90 Audience Scores and will definitely linger in moviegoers' minds for days afterwards.  The film will play well in large markets, but less clear will be the reception in smaller ones…those willing to give it some screen time may be surprised.

 

Boxoffice Estimate

The biggest advantage this film has is that it is being distributed by A24, known for its risk taking and critically acclaimed stable of independent films, that have gone on to win close to 20 academic awards…they have high brand awareness and a loyal following.  Civil War will be their widest release title thus far, so they will have their hands full but up to the challenge.  Buzz surrounding the film will help boost awareness and interest, and A24’s track record with strong opening weekend multiples should push holdover grosses for several weeks.

 

Analysis points to an opening weekend estimate of $17M, with a range between $15M and $18M, going on to yield a strong 4.8x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $71M and $87M….making this A24’s all-time highest opening and total gross title.




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