Published Feb 15, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed by: United Artists | Release Date: 3/3/23 | Run Time: 117 Minutes
Drama/Sport. Still dominating the boxing world, Adonis Creed is thriving in his career and family life. When Damian, a childhood friend and former boxing prodigy resurfaces after serving time in prison, he's eager to prove that he deserves his shot in the ring. The face-off between former friends is more than just a fight. To settle the score, Adonis must put his future on the line to battle Damian -- a fighter who has nothing to lose....Michael B. Jordan, Johnathan Majors, Tessa Thompson, Phylicia Rashad
Screening Notes
Three films in and the franchise has not lost a step. Michael B. Jordan did a super job in his directorial debut, and he is both charismatic and physically dominating on screen; he definitely brings the “cool factor” and this may be his best acting yet. Jonathan Majors is EVERYWHERE…Devotion, Ant-Man, Creed III, SNL Host, and Kang in the next Avengers movie. Plus, he is just dangerously scary as a boxer. Speaking of which, the boxing scenes in this film are crazy intense. It would have been nostalgically nice to have Rocky make a cameo, but the film doesn’t miss a beat without him (Stallone was the Producer on the film, so the Rocky spirit is alive and well and in safe hands with Jordan). I viewed in IMAX...I can still "feel" the punches.
Boxoffice Estimate
Moviegoer Awareness is tracking high (78), not surprisingly, highest among males (83), but nice to see females (73) not far behind. The WB 3/3 release date is timely, so the film should open strong, but Shazam! opens two weeks later, quickly followed by what looks to be a wealth of content rolling through Jun, so the “legs” on Creed could buckle in the later rounds of the match.
Weighted projection modeling yields an opening weekend totaling $38.8M (~9% higher than Creed II), with a range between $35M and $43M. The total multiple of 2.9x is lower than the first two films…due to the competitive marketplace, NOT the quality of this installment. The final gross estimate is between $100M and $123M, right in line with the previous two films. Note that over the past 5 years, Drama/Action films debuting in Mar on 2,000+ screens have opened to an average of $28.9M and gone on to total $80M.
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