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Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE (R)


Published Jul 23, 2024


Synopsis

Distributed By: Disney | Release Date: 7/26/24 | Run Time: 127 Minutes

Action.  Wolverine is recovering from his injuries when he crosses paths with the loudmouth, Deadpool. They team up to defeat a common enemy.....Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Matthew Macfadyen, Leslie Uggams


Screening Notes

Even after sitting through 127 minutes, and under the threat of torture, I could not possibly explain the storyline or plot of Deadpool & Wolverine…but I’m okay with that because for 127 minutes I was totally entertained and, oddly enough, those normally critical elements became secondary.  Ryan Reynolds drives this film.  His humor is sharp, quick-witted, full of sarcasm and always with dry, deadpan delivery.  Add in the playful, snarky banter with Hugh Jackman and the total irreverence towards Disney, 20th Century Fox, Avengers, and the entire Marvel Universe, and you end up with a film that will appeal to both Deadpool fans AND audiences who simply enjoy edgy humor and have a taste for action-packed movies with unconventional, anti-hero characters…and don’t shy away from R-rated films with over-the-top violence and plenty of foul language.

 

Boxoffice Estimate

National Research Group (NRG) tracking is yielding an incredibly strong 91 Awareness and 36 First Choice scores.  Looking over a data set of 200 titles over the past several years, historically the combination of these scores translates into an opening weekend gross somewhere around ~$200M. 

 

A weighted analysis of the comparative title set, the previous two Deadpool titles, the historical July market landscape, the eye-popping NRG tracking, and, of course, Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman’s cutting-edge mastery of social media and pop-culture, points to expectations of a $176M opening, with a range between $159M and $194M, going on to yield a 2.8x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $440M and $538M.  The projected opening is +40% greater than Deadpool 2 (’18), +26% greater than the average of the Comp set of titles, and 7.7x more than the average R-rated film opening in Jul over the past 8 years

Click To Watch Trailer !



 


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