Published Apr. 13, 2022
Synopsis
Distributor: Focus Features | Release Date: 5/20/22 | Run Time: 124 Minutes
The Crawley family goes on a grand journey to the South of France to uncover the mystery of the dowager countess's newly inherited villa.
Screening Notes
Similar to the “worlds” of Star Wars and Harry Potter, over 52 television episodes and six seasons plus, now, two movies, Julian Fellowes has well-established the consistently charming, orderly and feel-good world of Downton Abbey. Downton has not only successfully made the near impossible, and always dicey, jump from small screen series to BIG screen movie, but this latest Downton movie fits as perfectly into the endearing storytelling of the Crawley family as the first TV episode broadcast in 2010.
Moviegoers will love reconnecting with the lives of the two dozen cast members that Fellowes has somehow managed to convince us are now our own close friends.
Boxoffice Estimate
Downton Abbey has a cult-like fan base (if only it were the size of Star Wars or Harry Potter!). It is the most-watched drama in PBS history. The first movie generated $97M domestically and just under $200M worldwide. Downton Abbey: New Era offers both a nice stand-alone story for first-time viewers and a warm return for the cult. I also believe the May 20 release date offers some great counter-programing against week 3 of Dr. Strange, and the LONG-awaited Top Gun and kiddie-friendly, Bob’s Burgers on May 27. On the downside, unlike the demographic profile for the last several releases, including the great success for Sonic 2, the core audience for this film may still be a bit anxious with respect to COVID and returning to movie theatres.
My modeling (including a slight COVID-discount) lands at an opening weekend totaling $22M, with a range between $20M and $24M. The expectation of a +3x multiple provides exhibitors the opportunity to squeeze maximum revenue, leading me to estimate a total gross between $65M and $80M.
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