Published Feb 15, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed By: Warner Bros | Release Date: 3/1/24 | Run Time: 166 Minutes
Adventure | Sci-Fi. Paul Atreides unites with Chani and the Fremen while seeking revenge against the conspirators who destroyed his family. Facing a choice between the love of his life and the fate of the universe, he must prevent a terrible future only he can foresee.......Timothee Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Austin Butler, Dave Bautista, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Josh Brolin
Screening Notes
Dune: Part 1 (‘21) was a painfully s-l-o-w movie…the 168-minute runtime seemed like days. The cinematography was beautiful and meticulous and the story well-told; but almost 3 hours of dialogue can be an ugly test of moviegoing stamina and when the movie finally ends with Zendaya saying, “this is only the beginning”, I admit to being a bit leery about having to endure Part 2. Looking back, I was way foolish. Part 1 was backstory and character development that set a solid foundation for Part 2, which jolts you out of your seat in the first few minutes and keeps up the intensity for the entire 166-minutes. The battle scenes are epic, the political (and family) intrigue twisty, and the “deathstills” used to reclaim water from the dead will make you squirm. The vast desert scenes, the rise of a reluctant mystic leader who leads the Fremen tribe in fanatical revolt against a more powerful empire…the movie seemed very Lawrence-of-Arabia-like. And sure enough, post the screening I learned that Frank Herbert (the author of Dune) was actually inspired by the writings of T.E. Lawrence…aka, “Lawrence of Arabia”!
With the $200M+ success of Wonka fresh on moviegoer’s minds, Timothee Chalamet is officially a movie star and Zendaya one of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people in the world. Throw in Rebecca Fergusen, Javier Bardem, and Austin Butler (who is especially villainous) and this film is loaded with talent…my only criticism is that the always wildly unorthodox Christopher Walken didn’t have enough screen time.
Warner Bros knows a thing or two about epic franchise building (Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Batman…), so undoubtedly, there will be Part 3…audiences need to know if Paul Atreides is a hero or heading down a dark path!
Boxoffice Estimate
With moviegoers desperate for new content and virtually zero competition on the slate for nearly a month, Dune 2 has command of the market for most of March. Since ’16, PG13 films in March have averaged a $36M opening and gone on to total $94M; the month is not known for generating large grosses but now and then a film [Beauty and the Beast] can open to $175M, so the potential is there for sure.
My thinking points to Dune 2 opening to an estimated $59M, with a range between $53M and $65M, which is +44% greater than Dune 1 but -56% less than the comparative set of titles…which admittedly includes some pretty powerful films. It’s also -33% less than the average 2nd film in some similar historic franchises with 3 or more films, it falls most in line with LOTR Two Towers $62M opening weekend in ’02…although, that would total $106M in today’s dollars. Nevertheless, a $59M would be our largest opening since Five Nights at Freddy’s shocked everyone with $80M back in Oct ‘23…and Dune 2 is a MUCH MUCH better film.
Given the high quality of this film and low beat competitive landscape (other than March Madness which kicks off in the middle of the month), the film should yield a 3.6x multiple and produce a final gross between $190M and $232M. Note that Dune: Part 1 tallied a Rotten Tomato “Audience Score” of 90, and I have every expectation this film will exceed Part 1…and the Critics Score will not be far behind.
Click To Watch Trailer !
Comments