Published Feb 16, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed by: Paramount | Release Date: 3/331/23 | Run Time: 134 Minutes
Adventure. A charming thief and a band of unlikely adventurers embark on an epic quest to retrieve a long-lost relic, but their charming adventure goes dangerously awry when they run afoul of the wrong people....Chris Pine, Michelle Rodriguez, Hugh Grant, Rege-Jean Page
Screening Notes
First, let’s erase the 2000 movie from our minds; that film was awful and, with Critics scoring it 10% and Audiences 20% on Rotten Tomatoes, everyone agreed (why 2 direct to DVD sequels followed remains a mystery). This 2023 version seems to be a bit more spot-on with the spirit of the game…a group of struggling do-gooders band together to achieve seemingly impossible tasks. The movie is well-cast, with plenty of adventure and snappy banter, and the CGI is impressive. Although there was a lot of back-storytelling that needed to be done, would love to have had the film trimmed to a tighter 120 minutes. The movie will obviously appeal to D&D devotees, but you don’t have to be a Dungeon Master to enjoy…non-gamers will appreciate the adventure too.
Boxoffice Estimate
The Dungeon's & Dragons game has been around for almost 50 years and, with over 13.5M players in the US, is a well-known cult classic that has expanded its reach beyond “gaming nerds” into a mainstream fan base (Anderson Cooper, Tiffany Haddish, Vin Diesel, Stephen Colbert…). The trailer has played well and buzz with moviegoers (as measured by NRG) is solid, the cast is very likeable, and the PG13 rating PERFECT. Comparable titles over the last few years offer a good roadmap as to expectations, particularly Jungle Cruise ($117M) and Lost City ($105M). Other than Super Mario Bros opening the following week (WB 4/7), post-release similar-target-audience competitive pressure appears limited until Guardians of the Galaxy (WB 5/5).
Weighted projection modeling yields an opening weekend totaling $33M, with a range between $30M and $36M, and a total multiple of 2.9x leading to a final gross estimate of between $115M and $140M (one of 30+ 2023 titles projected to hit this milestone). Note that over the past 5 years, films debuting in Mar on 2,000+ screens have opened to an average of $28.9M and gone on to total $80.1M.
Click To Watch Trailer !
Comments