Published Jun 27, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Sony | Release Date: 7/12/24 | Run Time: 131 Minutes
Romantic Comedy. Sparks fly between a marketing executive and a NASA official as he makes preparations for the Apollo 11 moon landing...Scarlett Johansson, Channing Tatum, Woody Harrelson, Ray Romano
Screening Notes
Moviegoers will enjoy the stylish backdrop of the 1960’s and NASA’s race to send a man to the moon. The film’s rom/com storyline is pretty straightforward --- two people who initially dislike each other, plenty of snappy banter and humorous situations, obstacles to overcome, and eventually a happy ending. Simple, but darn it, it works every time. In this case, an attractive and very clever marketing executive clashes with a nuts and bolts, no nonsense NASA flight director. Johansson and Tatum share some nice chemistry, and Harrelson is fun as the mysterious [and villainous] White House “fixer”. If this was the 1960’s, the leads would be Rock Hudson and Doris Day. The film is entertaining and keeps a fairly good pace, but it could have easily been tightened up slightly to a more audience and operational friendly 120 minutes.
Boxoffice Estimate
National Research Group (NRG) tracking is currently yielding a 56 Awareness and 4 First Choice scores. Looking over a data set of more than 160 titles, historically the combination of these scores translates into an opening weekend gross somewhere around ~$15M…the low Awareness tracking is troubling and since we are only 12 days from opening, I’m hoping Sony’s marketing machine will quickly pick up the pace...Awareness for this title should be tracking in the mid-70’s. Fly Me to the Moon is a fun very marketable film, and I am confident that word of mouth will help drive post-opening grosses but I’m also fearful the film may get swallowed up in the market as Twisters and Deadpool crash the party in the two weeks that follow.
An analysis of the comparative title set (and current NRG tracking), points to expectations of a $19M opening, with a range between $17M and $21M, going on to yield a 3.0x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $51M and $62M. The 3.0x multiple is lower than the 4.2x average of the comp set; I’ve discounted for the two titles mentioned above that are going to be nipping at its heels. If the studio can push that Awareness number into the 70’s, the film does have the potential to open more in line with Lost City ($30M). Although projections fall short of the average PG13 title opening in Jul over the past 8 years, the $19M projection is in line with the average comp set of titles.
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