Published May 22, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Warner Bros | Release Date: 5/24/24 | Run Time: 148 Minutes
Adventure. Snatched from the Green Place of Many Mothers, young Furiosa falls into the hands of a great biker horde led by the warlord Dementus and finds herself in a nonstop battle to make her way back home...........Anya Taylor-Joy, Chris Hemsworth, Tom Burke, Nicholas Hoult
Screening Notes
Kicked off by Mel Gibson 45 years ago, Mad Max movies (this is #5) are like a wild rollercoaster ride through a post-apocalyptic wasteland, and that's exactly why moviegoers enjoy them. Certainly, not for everyone, they're all about insane car chases, badass characters, and a gritty, no-holds-barred vibe. Plus, there's something about the whole survival-of-the-fittest thing that gets audiences pumped. It's like a glimpse into a crazy future where rules are out the window, and only the toughest survive. And let's be real, who doesn't love a good dose of adrenaline-packed action with a side of dystopian chaos? That's the Mad Max magic right there and Furiosa stays true to the formula that works. Oh, and Chris Hemsworth deserves a special shout-out…he’s almost unrecognizable, but over-the-top amusing as a very nasty warlord.
Boxoffice Estimate
Dystopian themed films have provided the YTD boxoffice a nice boost…Dune 2, Planet of the Apes, and Civil War have generated $446M, accounting for 17% of the year’s total gross. At t-minus ten (10) days out, National Research Group (NRG) tracking is yielding a 70 Awareness and 9 First Choice score. The Awareness score is promising but the lower than expected First Choice number is a bit troubling, although likely speaks to the overall market size/depth for these types of films…if you like them, you will love Furiosa; if you don’t, you won’t.
Looking over a data set of more than 120 recent titles at this same point in time (t-minus 10 days), historically the combination of these scores translates into an opening weekend gross somewhere in the ~$30M range…my expectations are higher, landing at a $39M opening, with a range between $35M and $43M, going on to yield a 3.4x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $120M and $147M. I have to note that other industry analysts are looking at a $45M to $50M opening, so I’m definitely rooting for them.
The $39M is 15% less than Fury Road ($45M) but 47% greater than the average R-rated title ($18M) opening in May over the last 8 years, and more in line with the average opening for all titles ($35M) in May.
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