Published Aug 1, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Sony Pictures | Release Date: 8/9/24 | Run Time: 130 Minutes
Drama | Romance. Based on the 2016 best-selling novel. Lily Bloom moves to Boston to chase her lifelong dream of opening her own business. A chance meeting with charming neurosurgeon Ryle Kincaid soon sparks an intense connection, but as the two fall deeply in love, she begins to see sides of Ryle that remind her of her parents' relationship......Blake Lively, Justin Baldoni, Brandon Sklenar
Screening Notes
Every so often, everyone needs to watch a good romantic drama filled with strong feelings of love and heartbreak…and of course the emotional journey that captures all the conflict and resolution. Ends With Us stays true to Colleen Hoover’s novel, maneuvering through complex relationships and tackling difficult topics. Nicely positioned on the release schedule between Deadpool and Alien: Romulus, the film will provide adult moviegoers with a refreshing break from action-packed intensity to more relatable heartfelt drama and personal experiences.
Boxoffice Estimate
We are still 2 weeks out, so we have time for moviegoer Awareness to gain traction, but according to National Research Group (NRG), the title is currently only tracking at around a 50 Awareness and 3 First Choice scores…considering the novel has been on the NYT Best Sellers list for 131 weeks and Blake Lively commands 45M+ Instagram Followers (and she is Lady Deadpool), the Awareness numbers for this film are oddly low, so something is out of whack. Looking over a data set of 200 titles over the past several years, historically the combination of these scores translates into an opening weekend gross somewhere around ~$12M.
I’m definitely going to keep the Awareness stats top of mind but I’m counting on the marketing campaign to kick in as we near the homestretch. If this happens a weighted analysis of the comparative title set, a lookback at a recent set of titles released based on successful books, and the historical Aug market landscape, points to expectations of a $17M opening, with a range between $15M and $18M, going on to yield a 3.6x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $54M and $66M. Although this is the only pure romance movie in the market, the low screen count (3,200) will hold back the opening weekend gross. I suspect the film’s performance will closely align with Where the Crawdads Sing, which opened to a similar gross ($17M) but went on to generate 5.2x multiple! The projected opening is +20% greater than the Comp set of titles but right in line with the average PG-13 title opening in Aug over the past 8 years.
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