Published Sep 27, 2022
Synopsis
Distributed By: Sony Pictures | Release Date: 10/7/22 | Runtime: 106 Minutes
Family Comedy. When the Primm family moves to New York City, their young son, Josh, struggles to adapt to his new school and friends. All of that changes when he discovers Lyle, a singing crocodile that loves baths, caviar, and great music. Shawn Mendes, Constance Wu, Javier Bardem, Winslow Fegley
Screening Notes
This is a wonderful family film with a snappy musical soundtrack. In real-life, I HATE EVERYTHING about crocodiles; nothing good comes from a crocodile, I don’t even like to look at them. However, in a dark theatre, CGI Lyle, with his singing, dancing, and all-around kind heart, won me over. Javier Bardem was over-the-top excellent, as usual, and the rest of the cast provides nice support in playing off Lyle. Overall, a nice feel-good movie, similar to Nov 2021’s, Clifford the Big Red Dog. Parents will be extremely grateful.
Boxoffice Estimate
Given there are 9 books in this children’s series, with the first published 60 years ago (and the last one in 2010), I’m a bit surprised “total awareness” for the movie isn’t tracking higher; something to keep an eye on. We had a nice run of family/kids films this year, but by the time Lyle opens it will have been a L-O-N-G 70 days since DC Super Pets, so the Oct 7 timing looks to be spot-on…and the film should have a family-friendly clear runway for the next 47 days, until Strange World on Nov 23. By the way, a first edition book 1 in the series goes for $2,000+.
Given the time of the year, and the slightly lower than expected tracking, my thinking is to discount the opening by ~30% versus the recent comp titles, which lands at an opening weekend totaling $23.4M, with a range between $21M and $26M...still a very respectable gross that is 25% greater than the average Oct opening, and a bit higher than analysts currently project. Now, any concern over the current tracking suppressing the opening gross falls away, as the all-important “word-of-mouth” moviegoer reaction to this film spreads, translating into 3.2x multiple, yielding a much-needed total gross between $67M and $82M.
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