Published Jan 25, 2022
Synopsis
Distributed by: Warner Bros. | Release Date: 2/10/23 | Run Time: 110 Minutes
Comedy/Drama. Mike Lane takes to the stage once again when a business deal that went bust leaves him broke and bartending in Florida. Hoping for one last hurrah, Mike heads to London with a wealthy socialite who lures him with an offer he can't refuse...Channing Tatum, Selma Hayek
Screening Notes
This final chapter in the Magic Mike story kicks off with Tatum providing Hayek a very steamy lap dance that will make audiences blush and ends with a massive 30-minute dance sequence that’s pretty entertaining; in between is a very simple, very predictable story. Tatum plays the humble “everyman” well and is always charming; I had forgotten that in his pre-acting days he ACTUALLY was a stripper in Florida...fun to see his creative work inspired by true events. Hayek has become quite believable playing the “chaotic hot mess”.
Boxoffice Estimate
Given the s-t-r-o-n-g skewing towards a female audience, the negative impact of a Sunday Super Bowl should largely be offset by a strong Tuesday Valentine’s Day. The first film, albeit 11 years ago, opened to a surprising $39M and went on to total $114M; the sequel followed up 3 years later opening to only $13M but did go on to generate a 5.1x multiple that totaled $66M. Additionally, Tantum was a workhorse (and moviegoer favorite) in 2022, opening Dog to $15M and Lost City to $30M (and let's not forget that cameo in Bullet Train). Further, over the last 5 years, the average film in Feb has happily opened to $24M. Lastly, this film was originally slated for streaming (HBO Max) until rescued by being mindful that in order to maximize shareholder value, theatrical exhibition needs to play a meaningful role in the release of content.
Add all this up and it’s a head scratcher why this high-profile, very commercial film will only debut on 1,500 screens.
Weighted projection modeling yields an opening weekend totaling $12M, with a range between $10M and $13M, and a total multiple of 3.1x leading to a final gross estimate of between $34M and $41M. Note that over the past 5 years, films debuting on ~1,500 screens have opened to an average of $4.5M, with the top 5 averaging $15M. While certainly thankful the title will even have a theatrical run, my sense is the lower screen count will leave the industry short approximately $25M to $35M versus what could have been…
Click To Watch Trailer !
Comments