Published Dec 11, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Disney | Release Date: 12/20/24 | Run Time: 118 Minutes
Animated | Family. Lost and alone, orphaned cub Mufasa meets a sympathetic lion named Taka, the heir to a royal bloodline. The chance meeting sets in motion an expansive journey of an extraordinary group of misfits searching for their destinies.. …Aaron Pierre, Beyonce, Donald Glover, Mads Mikkelsen
Screening Notes
To begin with, Mufasa is a visually stunning, emotionally charged, and very intense Lion King follow up story. Disney has perfected the hyper-realistic animation style, which is jaw-dropping; the visuals are so detailed and lifelike you believe they are real…who knew baboons can actually sing. Adding to the visual brilliance, I screened the film in 3D…I was fortunate to have played a key strategic role in the industry’s relaunch of 3D in ’09, and this is one of the best 3D films I’ve ever seen, so immersive.
The storyline is a prequel to the 1994 and 2019 films…it’s clever and a lot of fun digging into Mufasa’s backstory, particularly the origins of his relationship with Scar.
The hyper-realistic animation is the same (although a little more advanced) as was used in the 2019 remake of the original. Even though the visuals are absolutely brilliant, I do find it hard for this type of technically perfect animation style to convey the charm and emotional warmth of the simple “cartoonish” animation used in the original classic film. It seems more endearing and relatable when a character’s facial expression and movements can be exaggerated and just plain quirky…a big ear-to-ear grin on a hyper-realistic lion doesn’t work and just looks wrong!
Mufasa may fall a little short of the infectious energy and wide appeal of the original animated film, but fans of Lion King will definitely find it worth the watch and enjoy the added depth to Mufasa’s legacy.
Boxoffice Estimate
This one is proving a little tough to assess. Of course, Lion King is a beloved Disney classic with a legacy of huge boxoffice success…the original ’94 film grossed $313M, which in today’s dollars equals $659M…more than Inside Out 2 ($639M), on 40% less screens; the ’19 remake tallied $544M, which is equivalent to $664M today. What’s giving me some slight heart burn is NOT the quality of this film, but three other variables:
Looking back at the last 3 years, similar comparative titles released during the Christmas holiday period have only opened to an average of $22M; overall, over the past 8 years, all PG titles released in Dec have only averaged a $32M opening
10 days out, National Research Group (“NRG”) tracking for Mufasa is hovering at an outstanding 93 in terms of “Awareness”, but only an 11 as a “First Choice” want to see…films with a 93 Awareness typically average around ~23
Mufasa is opening against Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Moana 2 and Wicked will likely still be going strong entering their 5th weekend…a wealth of kid-friendly titles, resulting in a very competitive market
Accounting for and factoring in all the variables listed above, results in a projection model pointing to a $62M opening, with a range between $56M and $69M. As is typically the case with quality films targeted to kids and families, Mufasa should produce a far above average multiple of 5.9x, generating a final gross between $333M and $407M. For context, a $62M opening weekend is 1.9x greater than the average PG film opening in Dec over the past 8 years and 2.9x greater than the Comparative set of Dec titles.
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