Published: Nov 15, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed By: Sony | Release Date: 11/22/23 | Run Time: 158 Minutes
Drama. A look at the military commander's origins and his swift, ruthless climb to emperor, viewed through the prism of his addictive and often volatile relationship with his wife and one true love, Josephine....Joaquin Phoenix, Vanessa Kirby
Screening Notes
Napoleon is a good movie, it’s just not THE movie I thought I was going to see. The film is directed by Ridley Scott, so you naturally think Gladiator, G.I. Jane, Black Hawk Down, Robin Hood. The 1-sheet, the trailer, the tag line (“He Came From Nothing, He Conquered Everything”), the very name of the movie, and the overall marketing plan screams this is going to be a story about Napoleon…his rise to power, the military genius, the great reformer that established a central banking system, an education system, the overhaul of France’s code of laws. But no, this is a love story about a very complicated relationship, with horrific, intense, and well-crafted battle scenes passing through the background, but we learn little of the historic figure, Napoleon. Again, a good movie, but I’m fearful audiences may feel a little dupped.
Boxoffice Estimate
This has been a good year for period dramas. Napoleon will likely play more like Killers of the Flower Moon than Oppenheimer (and receive the same Academy Award nominations) with general awareness and interest not surprisingly tracking highest within the 25+ age demo. The pre-Thanksgiving Nov 22 release date is perfect and will provide a nice boost to the opening gross; the film really doesn’t have any competing genres on the remaining slate through the end of the year, so that will certainly help.
My math points to an opening weekend estimated at $24M, with a range between 22M and $27M. The projected 2.8x multiple is lower than both the comp set and historical Dec average, and this is reflective of the moviegoers feeling a little “dupped” comment, above. The final gross is estimated between $61M and $75M…the opening gross, the multiple, and the total gross all fall in line with Killers of the Flower Moon, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing --- I was just hoping for more.
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