Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - PLANE (R)

Published Dec 15, 2022

Synopsis

Distributed by: Lionsgate | Release Date: 1/13/23 | Run Time: 108 Minutes

Action/Thriller. Pilot Brodie Torrance saves passengers from a lightning strike by making a risky landing on a war-torn island -- only to find that surviving the landing was just the beginning. When dangerous rebels take most of the passengers hostage, the only person Torrance can count on for help is Louis Gaspare, an accused murderer who was being transported by the FBI...Gerard Butler, Mike Colter, Daniella Pineda, Tony Goldwyn

Screening Notes

Pretty straightforward Gerard Butler action film, thankfully more in the vein of Olympus, London and Angel Has Fallen than Copshop or Den of Thieves. Yes, the movie is predictable, but the violence and action sequences aren’t excessive or outrageous, some emotional connections are made, and Butler is always much more fun to watch in the role of hero.

Boxoffice Estimate

When Butler is in full action mode, as the good guy battling terrorists and saving folks, his films average a ~$25M opening…when he is not, they average ~$10M. If this was 2019, the film would open to $25M, but it’s not, so sadly the opening, like the YTD industry total, will likely be around 35% less, totaling $16.1M, with a range between $14M and $18M.

Although there looks to be some interesting Sci-Fi content (Distant and 65) in Q1’23, Plane should benefit from being the only action title in the market until John Wick 4, in Mar. The anticipated 2.9x multiple is in line with both similar Butler titles and R-rated action titles opening in Jan. If true, the total gross estimate should fall between $42M and $51M.

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