Published Oct 5, 2023
"No matter what happens in life, be good to people. Being good to people is a wonderful legacy to leave behind." - Taylor Swift
Synopsis
Concert. The cultural phenomenon continues on the big screen! The Eras Tour film was filmed during the L.A. concert in August 2023. Immerse yourself in this once-in-a-lifetime concert film experience with a breathtaking, cinematic view of the history-making tour......…Taylor Swift
Screening Notes
Distributed By: AMC Theatres Distribution | Release Date: 10/13/23 | Run Time: 168 Minutes
WOW! What a feel-good event, with an amazing performer. As impressive as Taylor Swift’s talents are (songwriter, singer, musician, dancer), I’m equally impressed with her stamina to be in constant high-cardio motion for over 3 hours. She is non-stop movement, all the while singing effortlessly through over 40 songs, looking as fresh and rested at the end as she did at the beginning of the show. I was more exhuasted watching her then she was performing. Then there is her band, vocalists, and dancers grinding away right along beside her…and they all do this night after night, with only a few days rest during travel. Amazing, but then they were energized by over 70,000 devoted fans in attendance, who undoubtedly would have stayed for another 3 hours. The big screen, the powerful sound system, the energy of the audience (both on screen and in the auditorium)…watching a concert in a theatre provides fans with an experience only matched by actually sitting on the stage. There will be a lot of singing, dancing, and friendship braclets being traded in theatre auditoriums over the next few weeks!
Boxoffice Estimate
I struggle with knowing where to start. The Eras tour kicked off in Mar 2023 and, with a scheduled 146 concert dates, will continue through Nov 2024…by the way, the average concert includes 46 songs and 16 costume changes over its 3:20 run time; regular concert tickets are priced between $49 and $449 but with ticket holders not inclined to sell their tickets, the average resale price is over $1,000…and if there is any doubt about the spending power of Swifties, they also spend an additional $300 per person on F&B and merchandise during the concert.
With the tour currently averaging over 72,000 attendees per show, by the last concert date the tour could gross over $2B, making it the highest-grossing tour ever. Oh, and the $2B is just ticket sales, that $300 per person in F&B and merch sales will add another $2.5B in revs, for a total of $4.5B. [This calculation doesn’t even include the in-theatre concert revs]
All this makes the $19.89 theatre ticket price, plus the B-I-G screen sight & sound experience, a pretty appealing proposition.
Math points to an opening weekend estimated at $112M, with a range between $100M and $123M. If true, this will by far be the highest grossing all-time opening weekend for a concert film, crushing Miley Cyrus ($31M) by 3.6x. This could also rank as the 3rd highest opening film of the year, behind Barbie and Mario Bros. Oh, and this film will definitely move into the #1 slot as the all-time highest Oct opening film, ahead of Joker ($96M).
Even though a recent Forbes survey points to 53% of adults in the U.S. identifying as Taylor Swift fans, and as affordable as the admission to this concert experience is, my sense is the ticket price will eventually have an impact on sustaining attendance, leading to a 2.0x multiple, which is ~ 25% lower than other concert films. The final gross is estimated between $201M and $246M…making this the highest grossing concert film ever (the Bieber is the current champ at $73M).
Let’s also keep in mind this is for the most part incremental revenue…found money. Similar to Sound of Freedom, this title didn’t factor into anyone’s 2023 projections!
Click To Watch Trailer !
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