Published Sep 30, 2022
Synopsis
Distributed By: Universal | Release Date: 10/21/22 | Runtime: 104 Minutes
Romantic Comedy. A divorced couple teams up and travels to Bali to stop their daughter from making the same mistake they think they made 25 years ago. George Clooney, Julia Roberts, Kaitlyn Dever
Screening Notes
This Rom-Com is more Notting Hill than When Harry Met Sally, but George Clooney and Julia Roberts do deliver on a very simple, nicely predictable, feel-good romantic comedy. It’s been years since either actor has been on the big screen, so audiences will enjoy their return…seeing them together…and their snappy banter.
Boxoffice Estimate
Let’s review what we have: George Clooney + Julia Roberts + Romantic Comedy + PG13 Rating + Zero Competition in the Market = boxoffice $$$. This film is not destined to be one of the all-time classic rom-coms, but it does meet a very timely consumer need, in a market depleted of content, and will provide the Oct [and Q4] boxoffice with a much-needed boost.
Clooney and Roberts are both very bankable actors, averaging a $37M and $32M opening, respectively, for each of their last 10 films. Taking this into account, plus $17M for the near-term comps and $19M for the average title opening in Oct, my weighted projections spit out an opening weekend totaling $21.5M, with a tight range between $19M and $24M...for those keeping score, this projection is 30% greater than the comp titles, 13% greater than the average Oct opening, but ~35% less than Clooney and Roberts typically average. In part, downsizing the projection is the decision to only open this title on 3,400 screens.
Clooney and Roberts tend to drive an above average multiple, in this case, I’m projecting 3.6x, primarily because this looks to be the only PG13 comedy in the market during Q4. Estimated total gross is between$68M and $84M. My projections appear to be running ahead of analysts, but I’m fundamentally and optimist.
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