Published: Dec 1, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed By: Warner Bros | Release Date: 12/15/23 | Run Time: 116 Minutes
Family | Musical. The wondrous story of how the world's greatest inventor, magician and chocolate-maker became the beloved Willy Wonka we know today.....Timothee Chalamet, Hugh Grant, Rowan Atkinson, Olivia Colman
Screening Notes
Other than the three (3) animated titles (kid-friendly Trolls, Wish, and Migration), Q4 suffers from a pretty large void of light-hearted entertainment with a general audience in mind. I had a lot of anixiety heading into Wonka…Gene Wilder IS the iconic Willy Wonka (let's try to forget the creepy Johnny Depp '05 version), so can Chalamet step-up and deliver as the younger version --- there is zero evidence in his filmography that he can sing, yet this is a musical --- Dec 15 is a pretty key holiday release date, so we need this title to shoulder its responsiblities, and then some, through the end of the year and into Jan. I’m SO relieved to report the film works! Chalamet plays the role well…he can sing, he can dance, he’s charming and full of quirky personality. Hugh Grant is hilarous as Oompa-Loompa; the “chocolate cartel” and their network of characters are perfect villans; and Willy’s band of misfortunates are ideal sidekicks. Wonka fans can rejoice, this is the fun backstory as to how Willy Wonka became Willy Wonka. Warning, post the screening I was overcome with a strong and urgent craving for chocolate…STAT.
Boxoffice Estimate
As noted, other than the 3 kid-centric animated titles sprinkled between mid-Nov and end of Dec, there really isn’t a light-hearted, feel-good film targeting a broad general audience, leaving Wonka with plenty of runway. Surprisingly, as you look back over the past 7 years, there have only been 12 PG titles released in the month of Dec…they have averaged a $16M opening weekend, with Spiderman: Spider-verse (’18) and Sing (’18) topping the list at $35M each.
My analysis points to an opening weekend estimated at $36M, with a range between $33M and $40M; if true, Wonka would be the highest grossing Dec PG-rated opening in the last 7 years. Although, historically, PG titles opening in Dec run about 50% less than the average overall opening ($35M) for all titles during this month, the really good news is that those PG titles have a successful post-opening run, averaging an impressive 7.6x multiple…I’m hoping, my projected 5.0x multiple is conservative. The final gross is estimated between $164M and $200M, outpacing Mary Poppins Returns by about 5%...fun fact: adjusting Poppins’ 2018 $$$ into today, the grosses would be equal ($182M).
Click To Watch Trailer !
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