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Writer's pictureFrank Rash

Exhibitor Notes & Boxoffice Estimate - DOG (PG13)


Published: Feb. 4, 2022


Synopsis

Distributor: United Artists | Release Date: 2/18/22 | Run Time: 101 Minutes

With a dog named Lulu by his side, Army Ranger Briggs races down the Pacific Coast to make it to a soldier's funeral on time. Along the way, Briggs and Lulu drive each other completely crazy, break a handful of laws, narrowly evade death, and learn to let down their guards to have a fighting chance of finding happiness.

Screening Notes

First of all, contrary to the positioning as a comedy (“a filthy animal unfit for human company and a…dog”), this film is NOT a comedy, it is a dramedy…sure, it has some funny scenes and snappy banter, but the underlying story is very much a drama dealing with how the trauma of war (traumatic brain injury, seizures, anxiety) has impacted the lives of both a soldier and a military dog.


Channing Tatum does a nice job as both actor and director...he has come a long way since Magic Mike. And who doesn’t love a dog in any movie (well, maybe not the killer canine, Cujo). But I fear family audiences thinking they are going to watch a cuddly buddy film about a man and his dog are going to be disappointed.


Boxoffice Estimate

Channing has certainly racked up a nice record of driving a boxoffice gross, averaging $95M (and that excludes Kingsman and GI Joe). His films average just under a $30M opening weekend and go on to generate a 3.3x multiple...much higher than the typical PG13 comedy opening in February.


I estimate Dog to open between $12.5M and $15.2M and I see the multiple being lower…closer to 2.5x, meaning the film will go on to gross between $31.9M and $38.9M. Given the target demographic, my estimate does not include much of a Covid-discount.




Watch the Trailer



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