Published Nov 7, 2023
Synopsis
Distributed By: Sony | Release Date: 11/10/23 | Run Time: 98 Minutes
Drama | Musical. A young woman carrying an unimaginable responsibility. A young man torn between love and honor. A jealous king who will stop at nothing to keep his crown. Musical retelling of the timeless story of Mary and Joseph and the birth of Jesus......… Fiona Palomo, Milo Manheim, Antonio Banderas
Screening Notes
Simple, entertaining take on a timeless story; Journey to Bethlehem screens much like a Hallmark movie rom-com, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing and adds a unique spin families will enjoy...along with the blend of classic Christmas melodies given a pop song mix. Although the film has obvious faith-based undertones, the storytelling, song, dance, and humor should appeal to broader audiences.
Boxoffice Estimate
I’m not fully onboard with Sony’s release strategy thinking. This is not a major blockbuster and given the subject matter, very perishable Christmas holiday content. The film will appeal to faith-based organizations and over-index in mid- to small-sized markets, particularly within middle-America. So, Sony’s aggressive minimum hold for theatres opening on the national break is a bit of a head-scratcher, resulting in fewer screens and a suppressed gross during the first 3 weeks; then, when the business terms finally loosen up and appeal to expansion runs, the theatres for which this content genre falls within their programming sweet spot (typically, 1-4 screen theatres in smaller markets), are now conflicted with a slew of choices…Trolls, Wish, Hunger Games, Next Goal Wins, Wonka, Migration…in my opinion, Sony should have opened Bethlehem with their standard minimum hold policy, on as many screens as possible, and enjoyed the ride through the holidays.
My math points to an opening weekend estimated at $6M, with a range between $5M and $7M. The projected 2.9x multiple is in line with this film’s comp set of titles but well below the 3.8x generated by the 7-year run rate average for PG films released in Nov; this should lead to a final gross estimated between $15M and $19M.
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