Published Jul 5, 2024
Synopsis
Distributed By: Universal | Release Date: 7/19/24 | Run Time: 122 Minutes
Action. Haunted by a devastating encounter with a tornado, Kate Cooper gets lured back to the open plains by her friend, Javi, to test a groundbreaking new tracking system. She soon crosses paths with Tyler Owens, a charming but reckless social-media superstar who thrives on posting his storm-chasing adventures....Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Screening Notes
Who doesn’t like a nice traditional “summer blockbuster” movie…big $$$ budget, high-energy, lots of action, special effects, and a super cast. With a $200M budget, a timely storyline about tornados that hits VERY close to home for much of the central part of the US, and a very likeable Powell and Edgar-Jones who generate some great chemistry, Twisters checks all the boxes for being a perfect fun, popcorn-filled escape, crowd-pleaser. Powell was the cocky jerk you loved in Top Gun Maverick, a good and honorable comrade in Devotion, and became a movie star in Anyone But You; and he solidifies his leading man on-screen charisma in this film. Oh, and let’s not forget his Netflix movie, Hit Man, which dropped in Jun’24, generated 12.6M views in the first 7 days, and carries an impressive 91 Audience and 95 Critics Scores.
Boxoffice Estimate
National Research Group (NRG) tracking is currently yielding a growing 78 Awareness and 10 First Choice scores. Looking over a data set of more than 160 titles, historically the combination of these scores translates into an opening weekend gross somewhere around ~$46M. We currently stand two weekends away from the release date, so I look for the tracking to only get stronger, and with Twisters being the only PG13 action title on the release calendar for the back half of the summer, I have much higher expectations for this title…about 40% higher expectations.
An analysis of the comparative title set (and taking into account where I expect NRG tracking to move over the next ~2 weeks), points to expectations of a $64M opening, with a range between $57M and $70M, going on to yield a 4.0x multiple, which should produce a final gross between $229M and $280M. The projected opening is +20% greater than the average of the Comp set of titles and +30% more than the average PG13 film opening in Jul over the past 8 years. The opening weekend is expected to track closely with Indiana Jones and Fast X but word-of-mouth and the notion it is the only PG13 action film in the market for the rest of the summer, should generate a multiple ~60% greater than either of those two films as the length of run for this title stretches out much further.
As an interesting fun fact, while this is not in any way a sequel to the ’96 film, Twister, both are exciting movies about tornados, so you just can’t help to have a comparison of gross. The ’96 film opened to $41M and went on to total $133M, which in today’s $$$ equates to $82M and $485, respectively. There are several analysts which are projecting Twisters to open closer to $80M…as always, I’m rooting for them!
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